Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 9.035368 10.647460 12.421756 14.513701 16.906640 19.552186 22.691945
2025-01-12 6.610303 8.684009 11.181665 14.388018 18.368900 23.121062 29.192410
2025-01-19 5.109520 7.362634 10.289553 14.318567 19.660625 26.433834 35.593090
2025-01-26 4.375364 6.814776 10.189288 15.106610 21.978995 31.116308 44.029772
2025-02-02 3.784536 6.321902 10.033906 15.719750 24.035690 35.548508 52.434398
2025-02-09 3.351346 5.964896 9.985236 16.421375 26.215826 40.257099 61.515039
2025-02-16 2.845733 5.394435 9.513623 16.397016 27.278833 43.404555 68.557761
2025-02-23 2.345792 4.738088 8.799845 15.880142 27.496063 45.268068 73.790654
2025-03-02 1.921192 4.133020 8.074993 15.234432 27.406142 46.602725 78.251396
2025-03-09 1.670479 3.802771 7.770376 15.240970 28.341115 49.549708 85.328948
2025-03-16 1.466955 3.526792 7.520933 15.302651 29.350399 52.653433 92.810421
2025-03-23 1.280003 3.249760 7.228444 15.243828 30.127331 55.402895 99.854955
2025-03-30 1.061540 2.867824 6.688440 14.678454 29.985072 56.657286 104.618894
2025-04-06 0.928143 2.652482 6.453704 14.671130 30.851102 59.685580 112.542960
2025-04-13 0.811562 2.453034 6.222412 14.639550 31.659372 62.653617 120.526781
2025-04-20 0.772768 2.441360 6.397401 15.456309 34.152562 68.767586 134.314540
2025-04-27 0.723639 2.392736 6.481463 16.086304 36.322714 74.416204 147.567885
2025-05-04 0.683956 2.362004 6.601890 16.803676 38.716122 80.605503 162.096262
2025-05-11 0.605694 2.204690 6.397770 16.779323 39.592054 84.000576 171.714004
2025-05-18 0.512395 1.980089 5.993439 16.252088 39.371390 85.284514 177.491673
2025-05-25 0.426981 1.757190 5.556656 15.593218 38.803627 85.842098 181.911410
2025-06-01 0.380353 1.649317 5.406203 15.599906 39.671394 89.257314 191.902320
2025-06-08 0.341195 1.557184 5.284673 15.662858 40.664262 92.970909 202.637679